There were a couple of surprises in the first round of this draft, starting with the very first pick.
Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions was fantasy's No. 1 running back in PPR points last year, topping 1,900 total yards and scoring a whopping 20 total touchdowns. But with a healthy David Montgomery back this year and a new offensive coordinator after Ben Johnson departed for Chicago, it's not unreasonable to wonder if Gibbs' fantasy production could backslide in 2025.
The bigger surprise in the eyes of most is likely Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles falling to the ninth overall after he became the NFL's ninth 2,000-yard rusher last year. But it shouldn't be.
No 2,000-yard rusher has come close to duplicating his magical season the year before. Running backs who surpass 370 regular-season touches nearly always experience significant regression the following season. So do players who lead the league in rushing.
It's not a matter of whether Barkley will regress so much as how much.
To be fair, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is a risk/reward pick in his own right. The 29-year-old played in just four games last year, the third time in his career that he has missed double-digit games.
But if he can stay healthy, he has the potential to not only be the No. 1 overall running back but also to blow every other player at the position out of the water. Two years ago, he had over 2,000 total yards, won Offensive Player of the Year honors and outscored the No. 2 running back by over 100 PPR points.